How many losses in a row is normal?

Far more than most people expect. At a 45% win rate over 200 trades, a run of about 8 consecutive losses is the expected worst streak — not bad luck, simply what that win rate produces. At 35% it rises to roughly 11.

Does a long losing streak mean my strategy has stopped working?

Usually not. A streak only carries information if it is materially longer than the expected worst run for your win rate and sample size. Judging a strategy by its worst streak alone is how most people abandon a positive-expectancy system at precisely the wrong moment.

How is the expected longest losing streak calculated?

Using log(number of trades) ÷ log(1 ÷ probability of a loss), the standard approximation for the longest run of a repeated Bernoulli outcome. The per-length probabilities treat overlapping windows as independent, which is slightly conservative — the right direction to err for a risk tool.

What should I do during a losing streak?

Decide in advance, when nothing is at stake. Set the drawdown at which you will stop and review, size positions so that reaching it is survivable, and check the streak against what your win rate predicts before concluding anything. The decision made mid-drawdown is almost always the wrong one.

Losing streak simulator

Every strategy has losing runs, and they are longer than intuition suggests. See the streak length your win rate actually predicts — before you meet it live and mistake it for failure.

Win rate

Trades to consider

A year of daily signals is roughly 250.

Expected longest losing run

in 200 trades

Chance of 8+ in a row

80.3%

How likely is a run of at least this many losses?

3 in a row100.0%
4 in a row100.0%
5 in a row100.0%
6 in a row99.6%
7 in a row94.9%
8 in a row80.3%
10 in a row38.4%
12 in a row13.5%

At a 45.0% win rate, a run of 9 consecutive losses is the expected worst streak across 200 trades — not a sign anything is broken. Most people who abandon a working strategy do it during a streak that was entirely normal for their win rate.

We built this because it is the most useful thing a signal service can hand someone new. The most common way to lose money with a working system is to abandon it during a statistically ordinary losing run and switch to something else — usually just before the run ends.

Our own resolved signals, losses included, are on the track record. Pair this with the risk-of-ruin simulator to see what a streak of that length does to an account at your position size.

Frequently asked questions

How many losses in a row is normal?: Far more than most people expect. At a 45% win rate over 200 trades, a run of about 8 consecutive losses is the expected worst streak — not bad luck, simply what that win rate produces. At 35% it rises to roughly 11.
Does a long losing streak mean my strategy has stopped working?: Usually not. A streak only carries information if it is materially longer than the expected worst run for your win rate and sample size. Judging a strategy by its worst streak alone is how most people abandon a positive-expectancy system at precisely the wrong moment.
How is the expected longest losing streak calculated?: Using log(number of trades) ÷ log(1 ÷ probability of a loss), the standard approximation for the longest run of a repeated Bernoulli outcome. The per-length probabilities treat overlapping windows as independent, which is slightly conservative — the right direction to err for a risk tool.
What should I do during a losing streak?: Decide in advance, when nothing is at stake. Set the drawdown at which you will stop and review, size positions so that reaching it is survivable, and check the streak against what your win rate predicts before concluding anything. The decision made mid-drawdown is almost always the wrong one.

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These calculators are educational and are not financial advice. They describe arithmetic, not outcomes — no position size makes a losing strategy profitable. Trading carries risk, including loss of capital.